Alabama enters the new campaign ranked No. 8 and eager to rebound after a rare ‘down’ year that saw them miss the College Football Playoff and finish 9-4 under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer. DeBoer’s teams have historically shown a notable improvement in their second year—his previous stints at Sioux Falls, Fresno State, and Washington all featured a significant win increase and postseason success in year two. This season, Alabama turns to new starting quarterback Ty Simpson, who will be under pressure to maintain the Tide’s standard of excellence. However, Alabama’s roster remains stacked, leading the nation in the 247Sports Team Talent ratings and favored by 13.5 points according to FanDuel.
Florida State, meanwhile, is seeking to bounce back from a dramatic downturn. The Seminoles followed their 13-1 playoff season in 2023 with a stunning 2-10 collapse in 2024, one of the sharpest declines in recent college football history. In response, head coach Mike Norvell overhauled his coaching staff, bringing in former Auburn and UCF head coach Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator and hiring Tony White from Nebraska to revamp a defense that fell to 83rd nationally last year. The debut of quarterback Tommy Castellanos under Malzahn’s direction will be closely watched as FSU aims to re-establish itself as a contender.
This opener is historic in several respects. Not only is it Alabama’s first-ever trip to Doak Campbell Stadium, but it also carries added intrigue given both teams’ need for a strong start after the disappointments of 2024. Weather forecasts predict highs in the low 80s with a chance of rain and thunderstorms, potentially adding further unpredictability to the contest. Alabama will be without defensive lineman Tim Keenan (ankle) and running back Jam Miller (collarbone), though Jaeden Roberts has been cleared to play after concussion protocol. For Florida State, the matchup serves as an immediate litmus test for the effectiveness of their offseason changes and transfer additions.
Projections heavily favor Alabama, with expert picks and computer simulations (including SportsLine’s model that went 27-16 on top-rated picks last season) pointing toward the Crimson Tide’s superior depth and experience, especially in the trenches and at skill positions. While Ty Simpson may experience growing pains in his first true road start, the consensus is that Alabama’s overall talent should be enough to cover the spread and begin their campaign with a statement win.
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