Illinois Guard Keaton Wagler’s Inspiring Journey to Potential NBA Lottery Pick
When Illinois basketball coach Brad Underwood held his preseason Media Day press conference, one particular soundbite stood out from the rest. The Illini head ball coach spoke about his freshman guard Keaton Wagler, who entered college as just the 261st-ranked recruit in his class.
“We had two one-and-dones last year,” Underwood said. “And not to put too much pressure on him, but he’s in that category. He’s an elite competitor who reminds me a lot of Ayo (Dosunmu).”
Some of the media members in attendance rolled their eyes, some literally, more, and many more so figuratively. Wagler, who received only one other high-major offer (Minnesota) was being deemed The Next Big Thing. It was classic, typical Underwood over-hype.
After all, this unknown freshman, yet to even play a single minute of college ball was being compared to three former Illini currently in the NBA, and all in the same sentence. Underwood analogized Wagler to Dosunmu (who was just traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves, after five years with his hometown Chicago Bulls) and rookies Kasparas Jakucionis (who was taken 20th overall in June by the Miami Heat) and Will Riley (who went with the very next pick, to the Washington Wizards).
Four months later, Underwood’s preseason praise isn’t hype; it’s prophecy.
On the Rise
At midseason, Wagler is one of 10 finalists for the 2026 Jerry West Award, which honors the nation’s best shooting guard. The Shawnee, KS native was also named High-Major Player of the Month for January by the U.S. Basketball Writers Association, and KenPom currently ranks him the fourth highest individual player in the entire country.
Wagler first earned mainstream national awareness after his historic 46-point performance in the Jan. 24 win at No. 4 Purdue. The 19-year-old’s 46 points broke multiple records, including the most points scored in a road win over a top-10 opponent in AP poll history.
It was also the second-highest single-game scoring by an Illini player in program history and the Mackey Arena scoring record for a visiting player.
Underwood, Wagler’s top hype man, was asked if he ever saw something like this special night at Purdue ever happening. He responded no, and then continued:
“The hardest thing with freshmen is understanding what it’s like in the moment. … Even in the summer – the summer’s a little more laid back and a little more chill, so to speak, and you’re only on the court a small amount of time. But until you can really grind on them, until you can really get them in practice and get them fatigued and get them tired, get them day after day after day to find out who they are, you don’t know.
“We knew we were getting a really good player – that became very evident this summer. But the mental part, the component that is there, the toughness, that’s been beyond anything that I would have expected.”
Wagler wears #23, and on that night in West Lafayette, his performance (13-17 FG, 9-11 3PT, 11-13 FT) certainly evoked the greatest #23 of all-time, who also played for a team in the state of Illinois, Michael Jordan.
Whenever an outside shooter gets “in the zone,” and seemingly “can’t miss,” one natually analogizes Jordan’s “shrug game/moment.” It was game one of the 1992 NBA Finals, and Jordan hit a then-record six three-pointers in the first half against the Portland Trail Blazers. MJ scored an NBA Finals record 35 points in the first half, en route to a 122-89 Bulls victory.
After draining the sixth triple (Jordan was known for being great at many things, but not specifically at shooting threes), he turned to the broadcast table, specifically at Magic Johnson, and provided a shrug that implied “I can’t believe it either!” or “How am I doing this?”
Wagler achieved the Illini version of this single-individual performance, but he didn’t make a GIF-worthy moment.
He’ll get plenty of chances during March Madness, and then later on in the league, to do that. He’s a projected one-and-done to the NBA Draft now. NBA Draft.net has him going 7th overall, Tankathon has him going 6th overall.
Praise From Illinois Teammates
Last season, the Illini ran their offense through center Tomislav Ivisic, and the 7-footer describes what makes Wagler so special.
“Things that impressed me most is how young he is and how mature he plays,” Ivisic said.
“Basically, he doesn’t have a lot of mistakes in a game. He turns the ball over, I’m surprised that he turned it over. And he’s just extremely talented, great teammate.”
While he is a shooting guard, by definition, Wagler is a de facto combo guard. He plays a lot of point guard, so he brings up the ball and sets up an Illini offense that is much more than just the #1-ranked offense in the country, according to KenPom.
As Feed the Post points out, it’s actually the highest-rated offense in the entire history of the KenPom metric (which dates back to 1997).
The Illini offensive system is very much based around the three-point shot, but this team finds ways to win even when the three-point shot isn’t always falling. Illinois came from behind to win at Northwestern earlier this season, marking their first win in Evanston since 2022.
“We just stuck to our game plan,” Wagler said after the game.
“We knew that we were going to get great shots and we just had to stick to what we were doing, get on the offensive glass, through that stuff, and then deep on the glass so we can get out in transition.”
This team’s offense is very much reminiscent of the 2004-05 Illini, who went 37-1 and reached the national title game. They are all about making the extra pass in order to get the very best shot possible.
Wagler might be the leading scorer, but it’s a very balanced team, with multiple scoring options that allow them to find the best open man out of the pick-and-pop.
“It gives me confidence to know that if I’m not scoring all the time, we have great teammates,” he said.
One of those teammates is fellow freshman David Mirkovic, the team’s leading rebounder and third leading 3-pt shooter. He’s truly a “gamer,” playing through illness when necessary.
“He’s one of the toughest players I’ve been around,” Wagler said. “He’ll do whatever it takes to win. He’s a great teammate. He came out here and he had a lot of strength; something that not most people would do when they play sick, and that’s just shows how tough he is.”
Illini is currently ranked #5 in the nation, a leading contender for the Big Ten title, and projected to get a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The key to their winning games, and perhaps reaching the Final Four, and maybe even more than that, is simple.
“It’s definitely getting stops,” said Wagler. “We’ll be able to score.”