Predict Alabama vs. Missouri in Week 7 College Football Showdown

The highly anticipated SEC showdown between the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide and the undefeated No. 14 Missouri Tigers is set for Saturday at Faurot Field in Columbia. Alabama enters as a 3.5-point favorite according to the latest odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, with the total set at 52.5 points, reflecting the expectation of a high-scoring, closely contested battle. Missouri (5-0, 1-0 SEC) is off to its best start in years, but this will be the Tigers’ first matchup against a ranked opponent in 2025. Led by running back Ahmad Hardy, who currently tops the nation with 730 rushing yards and has scored in every game this season, Missouri’s ground attack has powered them to the third-ranked rushing offense in the FBS (292 yards per game). Quarterback Beau Pribula has also impressed, completing nearly 76% of his passes for over 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns, while adding three scores on the ground. Missouri’s defense, under coordinator Corey Batoon, has been strong against the pass, leading the country in completion percentage allowed and quarterback pressure rate. Alabama (4-1, 2-0 SEC), meanwhile, has rebounded from its season-opening loss to Florida State with consecutive victories over ranked SEC rivals Georgia and Vanderbilt. Quarterback Ty Simpson, now emerging as a Heisman candidate, has thrown 13 touchdowns to just one interception with a 75% completion rate, and has added two rushing scores. Wideout Germie Bernard has found the end zone in four straight games, providing Simpson with a reliable target. The Crimson Tide’s passing game is complemented by a defense that has allowed fewer than 200 passing yards in every contest, surrendering just three passing touchdowns all season. However, Alabama’s run defense has been a concern, ranking near the bottom of the SEC and 89th nationally by allowing nearly five yards per carry. Historically, Alabama has dominated this matchup, winning six consecutive meetings over Missouri by at least 18 points, including a decisive 34-0 victory last season. Under head coach Kalen DeBoer, the Crimson Tide are 5-1 against the spread versus ranked teams since 2024 and DeBoer holds an impressive .867 win percentage in games where both teams are ranked, the highest in the AP poll era. Yet, several analysts—including Joel Klatt of Fox Sports and David Pollack—have pointed out that the Tigers’ rest advantage following a bye week and Alabama’s struggles stopping the run could tilt the matchup in Missouri’s favor. Notably, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model gives Missouri a slight edge, though Austin Mock’s projection narrowly favors Alabama by two points. The key battle will be Missouri’s potent rushing attack versus Alabama’s sometimes vulnerable run defense. If Hardy and Pribula can control the tempo and keep Simpson off the field, Missouri has a legitimate shot at an upset, especially considering their 15-game home win streak—the second-longest active streak in the country. However, Alabama’s experience, depth, and battle-tested roster—reflected by their No. 3 strength of schedule per ESPN—may prove decisive, particularly if Simpson can exploit a Missouri secondary that has occasionally struggled against the deep ball. Predictions across major outlets are split. Some, like College Football HQ and Covers, see Alabama covering the spread and winning a close, high-scoring contest (30-24 or 31-20), citing the Tide’s superior schedule and playmaking ability at quarterback. Others, including Joel Klatt and David Pollack, are picking Missouri to pull off the upset, highlighting the Tigers’ balanced offense and rest advantage. Saturday’s game kicks off at 12 p.m. ET on ABC, with Joe Tessitore and Jesse Palmer on the call. All eyes will be on Columbia as Missouri seeks its first home win over a top-15 opponent since 1976, while Alabama looks to solidify its playoff credentials and extend its dominance in this rivalry.